Random Forward UFAs
Will still have more goals in the playoffs than Mitch Marner
I will get to it eventually, but I think the concept of the Rangers 2025-2026 season is essentially world building for a new Core. We have a coach that likely will stay beyond 2 years and there is a spark of hope that a superstar center becomes available to play with prominent members of team USA hockey. I do feel that the Rangers 2025 season was a season from hell that unless Igor gets hurt, the Rangers likely improve because of a new coach bump and just having a clean slate. How far they go is debatable, and I honestly think that it is linked to a proper reconstruction of the defense. It is important of note that even with a defense revamp, I don’t think they’d be near the same echelon as some other star laden teams, but having 3 pairs that can usually come out above 50% xG with Igor in goal is probably a nice head start to be winning most games. The Rangers won’t be able to make a dramatic change on offense this year especially if they’re targeting big fish in 2026, but there should be enough offense to compete if the defense is not being hemmed in. I will get to defensive targets in a separate post, but I think that there will be a few roster players and/or prospects who got a taste last year who will be pieces in packages for defensemen this off season. Due to this I do wonder what players may be available for certain roster spots.
I included the lineup from the last game of the season below… after signing Parsinnen (who can be just a place holder), I feel that Mika is in Perreault’s spot to start, if Kreider is traded, I assume as of now Berard + Edstrom can be on the roster depending on if Brodzinski or Rempe is scratched that day. That is definitely not exciting for people but at the same time you are effectively putting your hopes in the scouting staff, and giving time to your most developed prospects, something that was asked for quite a bit over the years. In the event that someone like Othmann or Berard are included with picks either #12 or their 2nd (43) there can be room for 1 or 2 3rd line spots. Assuming a Kreider trade, and signing Will Cuylle to 3x3.5 and K’andre Miller to a 1x4.65 as predicted by AFP Analytics the Rangers will have 6.77 million to fill their defensemen holes. As of right now those spots are filled by Soucy and Vaakanainen. Are the Rangers really trading Kreider to have spots for 2 more 3rd liners, or a 2nd line guy and rolling it back with that defense? I find it unlikely. I can easily even seeing them say, hey we are taking the L on the Soucy trade, he is not a fit here, and just taking less than what you traded for him but at least you know this now before the next season starts and you can clear 3.25 mil more to get yourself around 10 mil for a defenseman and a forward. Assuming they add 1 or 2 defenseman after said Soucy move with Vaakanainen either being 6/7D we are probably looking at 5 mil at best for cap space among Fs, realistically probably closer to 3-3.5 mil.
Together we will look through some of the projections from AFP analytics, and look for middle 6 possible value pick ups in the event that some of the Rangers young guys are actually in another organization as of July 1.
Trent Frederic, is someone I think that would be most rumored to be a Ranger as we get closer to July 1. I am sure we will hear rumblings about Gourde but he probably ends up signing a team friendly deal with Tampa. Frederic is projected to be making 3.5 mil for 2 seasons, he can play LW or C, a versatility that would be appreciated by the Rangers following the trade of Kreider and uncertainty about Parsinnen’s actual role on this team. Trent Frederic began his career with his detractors being seen as a safe first round pick and likely a 3rd liner and honestly, over the last 3 seasons his on ice value has improved, and has been a consistent 2nd line value in terms of Hockeyviz sG model. In terms of on ice production, he probably won’t give you .5PPG but his style of play matches what Drury/Sullivan look for while having a 3 year history of a player you’d be ok with paying 3.5 in my opinion. You’d likely have Othmann/Berard having one of the other spots in this scenario, and maybe a little bit of cap to spend on some lower end reclamation guy to fill out the roster or keeping Parssinen on the 3rd line.
Mason Appleton, is a USA born center who can play RW, projected at 3.22 x 3 and is a player that hovers similarly to Trent Frederic in terms of on ice production. Mason Appleton however, by the same Hockeyviz model is more consistently a lower echelon 3rd line caliber player. This would be an example of signing someone to make it seem like you made a good move, that fits a role but likely paying more than you should for a player. IF they’re spending 3 on a flex center for a grinding 3rd line, I would go only Frederic out of the UFAs, otherwise find some of the lower cap guys that can give you more value than Appleton + Juicy P.
Joel Armia, fits the role of a friend for Kaapo Kak…, is a big bodied veteran forward who is consistently given heavy defensive responsibility and quite frequently provides good on ice value for his role, frequently among 2nd/high end 3rd liners by sG model. He is projected to make 2.5 x 2, a contract that should be easy enough to stomach. If you look at his shot suppression isolates, there is also a significant area of suppression along the entire R side of the defensive zone, an area frequently attacked by the Ranger’s opposition. Armia can be big in a roster building experiment hoping he can help Parssinen develop into a strong defensive 3C, or because hed be making 2.5 and not 3.5 the Rangers would have an extra Mil to throw on another player.
Nick Bjugstad, projected to make 2.3 x 2, is the stereotypical Rangers target for the 3C role. A big veteran centerman, who plays a defensive game, and honestly does just fine as a decent 3rd liner. For the last 7 years, the sG model has him hovering on the border between 3rd and 2nd line, and at a 2.3 mil investment it can be something that piques the Rangers interest more than Parssinen, once again allowing for either Parssinen to be a 3LW, or for them to bury him and combine that cap hit with the other 1 mil reserved for forwards and getting a guy like Armia.
Eric Robinson, is a big body with speed, naturally working in a Hurricanes organization that values his game. He is projected at a contract similar to the last 2 mentioned and has similar on Ice value to someone like Mason Appleton but being a LW I don’t think that he is someone that would make too much sense here, for that on ice impact. Would rather keep one of the kids we may be trading.
Brandon Tanev has a history with Mike Sullivan, and his play style is something that I think the Rangers want to instill in a lot of their other players. He is projected at 2.2 x 2, but his on ice value has been declining over the last 3 seasons to a 4th line level. 2.2 mil maybe served better elsewhere unless you think he can be a major culture changer.
Christian Dvorak, a former future Ranger, that looked like was on the up and up when he was 23 years old before essentially becoming a low end 3rd liner, if not 4th liner for his time with the Habs. Can he be one of those players that just play as good as the guys on his line and team with his best season with the habs since his first coming in 2025? He is projected at 1.75 and it is something that would be only mildly intriguing if it is the end of July and you’re hungry for a move. His defensive value significantly improved from last season but is still pretty empty on the offense. Do you like him for 500K more than Parssinen? Idk.
Luke Kunin, is a player with terrible numbers, that has been rumored to be drawing interest by the Rangers for a few years. 1.78 projected hit. Idk what to tell you, probably a bad move when for 500K more you can get a player who can provide more value. Rempe will provide more value to the NYR.
Michael Carcone, is a player that the Rangers can probably poach for near league min or under 1 mil. While undersized he provides speed, is a bit of a pest and has been able to go on some random scoring runs. Carcone’s defensive numbers aren’t that good, but he can generate shots. His Shot attempts/60 were 17.92 at all situations ranking 37th in the league last year, ahead of submachine gun Frank Vatrano. For a team that doesn’t generate shots, under 1 mil for that is a risk I take any day.
Anthony Mantha, was a target by most Rangers fans last year but Laviolette stood in the way. That is no longer the case but the 6’5 former first rounder got injured this season limiting him to just 14 games. Frequently seen as lazy, Mantha does tend to be an analytics darling. During his most recent seasons when he is actually on the ice, Mantha has been much improved following his divorce from Laviolette, similar to Carcone but 8 inches taller, he can provide a low cap investment possible answer to provide value for a middle 6 role, especially if the Rangers have young guys champing at the bit for the spot as well.
Jesper Fast, can be had for a reunion, being hurt all season, the Rangers can give him a very low cap hit, but filled with bonuses similar to the Oilers with Connor Brown. You know the player, how much can he provide at this stage remains to be seen.
Out of all of the names I think I would be cool with a combination of Frederic + Carcone/Mantha/Fast, or Armia with Bjugstad. I am not sure what spots are realistically available, that probably becomes clear following the draft but while the Rangers must provide most of their assets this summer to fixing the defense, finding some forward depth for 3.5-4.25 (if Juicy P is waived at season start) is possible. Outside of a miracle like Carcone or Mantha finding their home offensively, being able to not smash your head against the wall when the bottom 6 is on the ice because they can both defend and forecheck well is 3.5 well spent.